Serbia’s export model is changing as electric vehicles, copper, manufacturing and tradable services gain weight. At the same time, electricity exports face new pressure from EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) rules and weaker hydropower conditions.
Automotive output lifts goods exports
The Kragujevac plant operated by Stellantis is cited as a key indicator of the shift. Exports of motor vehicles rose 51.1% year on year in the first half of 2026. The increase coincided with higher production of the Fiat Grande Panda and partly the Citroën C3 compared with the ramp-up period a year earlier.
The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) estimates that motor vehicles accounted for close to three-quarters of the total rise in goods exports. The wider automotive cluster now represents close to 20% of Serbian merchandise exports. This compares with 15.7% in 2025 and around 12–13% several years earlier.
Production data align with the export figures. Motor-vehicle manufacturing increased 43.3% year on year in Q2, contributing to a 3.3% rise in manufacturing output. The NBS expects electric-vehicle production in Kragujevac to increase further as capacity utilisation rises.
Copper and mining strengthen external trade
Mining is identified as a second major driver of exports. First-half mining exports increased 34.7%, supported by nearly a 40% year-on-year increase in the global copper price. In Q2 alone, mining exports were up around 30.3%.
This export performance supported Serbia’s external account while energy imports became more expensive. The mining contribution is linked to commodity price movements alongside changes in overall trade conditions.
Broader manufacturing growth and services surplus
Total manufacturing exports rose 9.0% in the first half, with growth recorded in 15 of 23 branches. Metal products contributed about 1.1 percentage points to export growth, while rubber and plastics added 0.7 points. Computers and electronics, basic metals and chemicals each contributed roughly 0.4 points.
Services are developing alongside goods exports. In Q2, Serbia generated a €703mn surplus in services trade. Service exports increased 10.9% year on year, with ICT and business services providing the largest contribution, while imports rose 6.8%.
Energy exports fall as CBAM affects carbon-intensive production
The shift is reflected in macroeconomic indicators tied to external balances. Serbia’s current-account deficit fell by around 30% in the first half despite a worsening energy balance. The NBS attributes this to export growth coming from several distinct sectors rather than a narrow commodity base or low-value manufacturing.
The transition is not uniformly positive for all export categories. Electricity production fell 8.8% year on year in Q2, and electricity exports dropped approximately 45%. The decline is described as partly linked to producers adapting to CBAM, and partly due to lower hydropower availability reducing domestic generation.
The NBS explicitly identifies CBAM as a constraint on the energy sector and also notes potential pressure from announced EU steel-import quotas. For now, it does not expect these factors to create a large negative effect on overall net exports, but they are described as an important structural change for carbon-intensive producers.
Tighter carbon policy changes investment needs and sector outlook
The contrast between EV exports and electricity exports is presented as reflecting Serbia’s changing relationship with EU climate policy. Electric-vehicle-related activity aligns with the European transition toward electrified transport, while electricity faces higher carbon-related trade costs under evolving EU rules.
The NBS expects significant investment requirements in energy as a result of these pressures. It anticipates a gradual recovery in electricity and mining activity in later years supported by structural reforms and expansion of renewable-generation capacity.
The report also links manufacturing resilience to EV demand trends in Europe. It notes that overall external demand in Europe remains soft but says electric-vehicle registrations increased 40.5% year on year in the first half, supporting expectations of stronger utilisation at Kragujevac.
Services-linked outlook for 2027 amid sector concentration risk
The composition of exports is also expected to affect the current-account outlook for 2027. The NBS expects Expo-related tourism and business services to push net exports into positive territory, contributing around 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth next year.
The shift carries concentration risk tied to automotive output and commodity prices. Stellantis is described as highly important to incremental export growth, making plant utilisation and European EV demand disproportionately relevant, while copper prices can reverse and ICT or business services depend on labour availability and international demand.
The first-half data are described as showing that current-account improvement was not driven by import contraction alone but also by an increase in export capacity across multiple sectors. The emerging Serbian export story is characterized by electric cars, copper, components, business services and ICT as CBAM makes carbon-intensive exports more demanding.