The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entered its definitive phase on 1 January 2026, affecting carbon reporting for Serbia’s steel, aluminium, fertiliser and cement producers. The first two published CBAM certificate prices were €75.36 per tonne of CO₂ for the first quarter of 2026 and €75.28 per tonne for the second quarter. The published prices provide a carbon-price reference for Serbian exporters and their EU customers.
For companies in Serbia, the immediate issue is not limited to securing renewable electricity volumes. The CBAM framework requires separating three different transactions that are sometimes treated as interchangeable. A Serbian factory using Serbian electricity is making a domestic power purchase, while a Serbian factory exporting steel, aluminium, fertiliser or cement to the EU is involved in a product-CBAM transaction. A company delivering Serbian electricity across the EU customs border participates in an electricity-as-a-good CBAM transaction.
Ownership does not change the basic classification of electricity use. A German-, Chinese-, Slovenian- or Irish-owned factory operating in Serbia is still consuming electricity in Serbia when it buys power for domestic production. For traders physically importing Serbian electricity into Hungary, Romania, Croatia or Bulgaria, the electricity-specific rules apply directly. Those rules include whether the calculation uses a regulatory default factor or verified actual emissions.
Renewable PPAs and CBAM eligibility for product exports
The distinction affects how renewable power contracts translate into commercial outcomes for industrial exporters. For a Serbian manufacturer, wind or solar contracts can hedge electricity expenditure, reduce exposure to wholesale volatility and support corporate emissions targets. However, such contracts do not automatically provide an exemption from CBAM for products exported to the EU. Electricity procurement is therefore only one element of CBAM-related systems tied to exported goods.
HBIS Group Serbia, operator of the Smederevo steelworks and Šabac tinplate facility, illustrates the link between energy contracting and product-level CBAM requirements. The company has designed capacity of about 2.2mn tonnes of finished steel products per year and employs approximately 5,000 people. A domestic wind PPA could improve predictability over part of HBIS’s electricity bill and influence the market-based emissions profile of purchased power. It would not remove carbon costs associated with blast-furnace ironmaking, coke use and other direct production emissions embedded in steel exported to the EU.
The steelworks requires a product-level CBAM system connecting installation emissions, production batches, electricity consumption, input materials and EU import declarations. Electricity procurement is described as one component rather than the full solution for CBAM compliance on exported steel. This approach places reporting and traceability requirements alongside power contracting decisions.
Aluminium rolling operations and upstream emissions tracing
Impol Seval in Sevojno is another case where renewable electricity interacts with product-specific CBAM calculations. The aluminium rolling company is controlled by Slovenia’s Impol Group and produced approximately 52,632 tonnes in 2024, up from the previous year by 29.1%. Its CBAM position depends on product codes and on how upstream embedded emissions are treated through imported or purchased aluminium inputs. The treatment of the Serbian processing stage also affects how carbon intensity is determined.
The relative value of renewable electricity can be higher for rolling operations than for integrated blast-furnace steelmaking because electricity is used in rolling, reheating, finishing and auxiliary consumption. Even so, Impol Seval must trace carbon intensity across slabs, ingots and recycled material entering its production chain. A Serbian PPA cannot erase upstream smelting emissions contained in imported aluminium feedstock.
The group’s declared target is to reduce emissions intensity by 58% per tonne of aluminium by 2030, relative to 2021. Achieving that target requires a combination of low-carbon inputs, recycling, process efficiency and renewable power rather than relying on certificate-led procurement alone.
Fertiliser and cement: power contracting alongside process emissions
Elixir Group, Serbia’s principal phosphoric-acid and complex-fertiliser producer, faces similar interactions between energy costs and CBAM calculations. Elixir Prahovo reports annual capacity of approximately 165,000 tonnes of phosphoric acid and 300,000 tonnes of NPK fertiliser. During 2025, the group invested €179mn under its Prahovo 2027 development programme covering new phosphoric-acid capacity, crystalline fertilisers and energy recovery from waste.
The group also raised RSD4.1bn, equivalent to roughly €35mn, through a five-year green bond with a 6% fixed annual coupon. The financing supported a new technical monoammonium-phosphate plant in Prahovo, while Scope assigned an issuer rating of BB/Stable. More than 70% of production has historically been exported, linking carbon performance to export margins and debt-service capacity.
A renewable PPA can reduce electricity-price volatility at Prahovo and Šabac, but fertiliser CBAM calculations depend on more than purchased electricity. Feedstock characteristics, ammonia-related emissions, process heat and fertiliser formulation can carry greater carbon weight than power procurement alone. Elixir therefore needs product-specific verified data alongside its power-procurement records.
Cement producers face a comparable split between electricity OPEX stability and dominant process emissions sources under CBAM-linked reporting. Moravacem, part of Ireland-based CRH, operates the Popovac plant with annual capacity of approximately 1.35mn tonnes of cement and binders. Holcim Serbia operates Beočin cement plant while Titan Cementara Kosjerić remains another large producer.
Cement’s dominant emissions source is described as chemical conversion of limestone into clinker combined with thermal fuel consumption. The most important CBAM levers remain clinker ratio, fuel mix, kiln efficiency, alternative fuels and carbon intensity of production. Wind and solar contracts can stabilise electricity OPEX at these plants but cannot substitute for clinker decarbonisation.
When Serbian electricity is imported into the EU: eligibility conditions
The commercial logic changes when Serbian electricity itself is imported into the EU under an electricity-as-a-good approach. The normal starting point is an applicable electricity default factor rather than plant-specific actual emissions. Claiming plant-specific actual emissions is described as an exception requiring a complete evidence chain.
The electricity must be covered by a qualifying PPA between the authorised CBAM declarant and the Serbian producer. The generator must be directly connected to the EU transmission system or parties must demonstrate absence of physical congestion under specified conditions. The installation cannot emit more than 550g fossil CO₂ per kWh.
The generation period alignment requires that generation and cross-border nominations match for no longer than one hour. The complete evidence chain must be certified by an accredited verifier that receives at least monthly information.
A guarantee of origin does not satisfy these conditions on its own. Neither does a corporate claim that the buyer consumes “100 per cent renewable electricity”. A conventional chain of back-to-back contracts among generator, trader, supplier and EU industrial customer may also fail unless it preserves the required relationship with the authorised CBAM declarant.
Sensitivity to certificate prices: cost differences under default versus actual factors
The cost difference can be material at published certificate prices for 2026 imports coverage periods. At the published second-quarter price of €75.28 per tonne, a planning scenario using an electricity factor of 0.5–0.8 tonnes CO₂ per MWh produces a CBAM cost of approximately €37.64–€60.22 per MWh. This range is presented as sensitivity rather than an estimate of Serbia’s official country default factor.
An EU buyer importing 100GWh per year, if it fails to qualify for actual emissions under plant-specific rules, could add approximately €3.8mn–€6.0mn annually. If plant-specific low emissions are accepted using a Serbian renewable offer priced at €55–70/MWh, plus cross-border capacity costs estimated at €10–20/MWh, delivered cost could be about €66–€93/MWh. Under full default-factor fallback for the same transaction structure it could move towards €104–€153/MWh, before taxes and buyer-specific charges.
The source framing emphasises that value depends on verified eligibility rather than on renewable labelling alone.
Auction pipeline for wind and solar; financing benchmarks for new projects
The Serbian renewable pipeline described as supporting more industrial contracting includes auction allocations totalling close to