Trade compliance under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is set to intersect with a new national carbon price in the Western Balkans. From January 2026, Serbia plans to introduce two environmental taxes designed to cut greenhouse gas emissions while aligning domestic policy with EU climate objectives. The move matters for companies that face both internal carbon costs and border charges when selling into, or sourcing from, the EU market.
Serbia’s January 2026 carbon pricing package
Serbia’s first measure is a national carbon tax set at €4 per ton of CO₂. The scheme will be implemented through two separate laws: one governing greenhouse gas emission taxation and another covering imports of carbon-intensive products. Together, the framework is intended to create a direct cost signal tied to emissions and to extend that signal to relevant import flows.
Industry impact is expected to concentrate in activities with higher emissions intensity. According to Željko Marković of the Association of Energy Experts, the tax will primarily affect fertiliser production, iron and steel, ferroalloys, cement, and electricity generation. The charge will be levied per ton of emitted CO₂, with other greenhouse gases converted into CO₂ equivalents for taxation purposes.
How the national tax interacts with EU CBAM
Serbia and other regional countries are also subject to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism when exporting covered goods into the EU. CBAM applies a levy on imports from non-EU countries based on their carbon footprint, reflecting differences in how emissions are priced across jurisdictions. The policy rationale is to reduce competitive distortions between EU producers that already bear emission costs and importers from systems without comparable measures.
Marković said EU importers currently pay around €85 per ton under CBAM-related cost calculations. With Serbia’s domestic €4 per ton carbon tax in place, he expects an effective reduction in the overall burden for relevant flows to about €81 per ton. He also characterised the national measure as an offset mechanism that can partially counterbalance the CBAM charge.
Compliance implications for exporters and importers
For exporters from Serbia and similar jurisdictions, the combined effect of a domestic carbon tax and CBAM border pricing increases the importance of emissions data quality and product-level reporting. Firms operating in covered sectors will need to ensure that their calculated emissions footprints align with what EU requirements demand for border adjustment purposes. This is particularly relevant where production pathways vary between sites or over time as companies invest in lower-emissions technologies.
For EU importers sourcing from outside the bloc, the interaction described by Marković highlights how domestic carbon pricing can influence effective cost outcomes. Importers may need to track how third-country measures are reflected in their CBAM calculations and documentation processes. Meanwhile, EU producers already operating under the EU ETS remain exposed to ongoing compliance requirements under the broader European Green Deal framework.
Sector focus: cement, steel, fertilisers and power
The sectors flagged for Serbia’s carbon tax—cement, iron and steel, ferroalloys, fertilisers, and electricity generation—overlap with areas where CBAM compliance pressure is most acute for trade flows into the EU. For these industries, decarbonisation investment decisions can be shaped by how quickly internal carbon costs translate into export competitiveness under border adjustment rules. Hydrogen is also frequently discussed within industrial decarbonisation roadmaps in Europe; however, the Serbia measures described here focus on carbon-intensive production categories and electricity generation.
Overall, Serbia’s planned €4 per ton CO₂ tax starting in January 2026 adds a new layer to cross-border emissions accounting for firms facing both domestic pricing and EU CBAM levies. The resulting compliance challenge is likely to centre on consistent measurement of emissions across production routes and clear alignment between national taxation logic and CBAM-related reporting expectations. In parallel, industrial decarbonisation strategies across covered value chains will continue to be influenced by how carbon costs are applied at both factory gate level and at the border.