European aluminium buyers are reassessing sourcing strategies as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) introduces carbon-related obligations for covered imports from countries including Canada and Mozambique. Products originating in Norway and Iceland remain outside the mechanism’s scope. Eurostat recorded €29.5 billion in EU imports of aluminium and related products in 2024 across HS Chapter 76.
Canada, Mozambique, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates are among the important suppliers of unwrought aluminium. The trade value includes products not currently covered by CBAM and does not represent the mechanism’s taxable import base. The distinction is commercially significant for a region that depends heavily on imported primary aluminium.
Norway and Iceland origin exclusion under CBAM
Norway and Iceland benefit from a specific regulatory exclusion for originating products under CBAM. The exclusion differs from assigning imported aluminium a zero emissions factor. It relates to how the mechanism treats the country of origin rather than determining that smelters generate no emissions.
Electricity supply arrangements, production economics and commercial pricing remain relevant to Nordic producers’ competitiveness. The regulatory exclusion changes the compliance treatment, but it does not establish that every Norwegian or Icelandic aluminium product has lower physical production costs or emissions than competing material. For European buyers, predictable compliance requirements and documentation can be affected by this origin-based distinction.
December 2025 spike followed by January 2026 reversals
Import patterns changed sharply around the start of CBAM’s financial phase. According to Fastmarkets, EU imports of unwrought aluminium from Canada reached approximately 175,000 tonnes in December 2025. Deliveries from Mozambique totalled around 105,000 tonnes over the same period.
By January 2026, Canadian shipments had fallen to approximately 10,000 tonnes. Mozambican deliveries approached zero during January 2026. The reversal indicates a response to import timing ahead of new obligations, without establishing a permanent loss of European market share for either supplier.
The figures also need to be assessed alongside physical supply developments. Industry reporting during 2026 highlighted operational pressures in certain African and Gulf aluminium supply chains, adding uncertainty around availability and continuity of shipments. European buyers are therefore expected to evaluate smelter output, contractual reliability and freight costs alongside CBAM exposure.
CBAM calculations focus on covered emissions inputs
Aluminium smelting is highly electricity-intensive, but the current CBAM charge does not simply include all indirect emissions linked to purchased electricity. The calculation focuses on emissions covered by the applicable methodology. This includes relevant direct process emissions and specified upstream inputs.
A hydro-powered smelter may have a strong broader environmental profile without that automatically translating into a proportionate reduction in its current CBAM certificate obligation. Production route, process emissions and the treatment of covered precursor materials must be assessed separately. For covered imports, access to reliable, verified actual emissions data is commercially important.
National averages may not distinguish an efficient individual facility from other producers operating in the same country. Buyers evaluating offers from covered suppliers therefore need to consider whether sellers can provide verified actual emissions figures rather than relying only on country-level data.
CBAM certificate reference price and delivered premiums
The third quarter of 2026 saw a CBAM certificate reference price reach €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent. For offers involving covered suppliers, buyers need to establish the applicable benchmark-adjusted liability. They also need to determine whether sellers can provide verified actual emissions data.
The certificate reference price is not a uniform surcharge on every tonne of aluminium. The final calculation depends on applicable emissions values, benchmark adjustments and any qualifying deductions for carbon costs already paid abroad. Physical aluminium premiums also affect supplier comparisons.
Regulatory treatment, transport expenses, metal availability and contract terms can all influence delivered prices. As a result, comparisons based only on national emissions averages or quoted metal prices are incomplete when assessing offers under CBAM-related obligations.
Sourcing decisions shaped by compliance documentation and supply reliability
Norwegian and Icelandic suppliers may become more attractive for buyers seeking regulatory simplicity and predictable documentation under CBAM rules tied to origin status. However, European aluminium demand involves scale and specialised requirements that mean exempt origins cannot automatically replace all other sources.
Long-term purchasing decisions continue to depend on availability of suitable metal, production reliability and verified process emissions. Contractual allocation of carbon-related costs also remains relevant for determining how competition develops between exempt origins and producers whose exports are subject to CBAM obligations.