European unwrought aluminium imports linked to origins subject to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism rose ahead of the mechanism’s financial phase, then contracted sharply in early 2026. The change has affected assessments of underlying demand and the timing of carbon-related cost impacts for manufacturers buying imported metal.
Fastmarkets reported that EU imports of unwrought aluminium from CBAM-relevant origins, excluding exempt countries, reached about 675,000 tonnes in December 2025. That level was more than double the typical monthly range of roughly 280,000–360,000 tonnes.
In January 2026, imports fell by 79% to 143,000 tonnes. They then recovered slightly to 183,000 tonnes in February. Fastmarkets said the magnitude of the reversal exceeded normal seasonal trading patterns and was concentrated among countries exposed to CBAM default emissions values.
Supplier-level changes in December 2025 versus January 2026
The shift was particularly visible among several major suppliers. Canadian deliveries were about 175,000 tonnes in December 2025 before dropping to around 10,000 tonnes in January 2026.
Mozambique supplied approximately 105,000 tonnes in December and fell to near zero the following month. Shipments from Bahrain declined from roughly 85,000 tonnes to 19,000 tonnes over the same period.
Norwegian and Icelandic aluminium did not show the same pattern. Fastmarkets attributed this difference to those supplies falling outside CBAM’s scope because of the countries’ regulatory status.
Customs timing and inventory effects on CBAM liability
The import data indicates front-loading ahead of the mechanism’s financial phase. Fastmarkets also noted that the figures do not show whether end-user demand disappeared.
Metal imported and cleared through customs before the new liability took effect can remain in storage and later enter manufacturing supply chains. This creates a distinction for buyers between inventories acquired before obligations applied and metal imported afterward.
Importers are therefore expected to separate existing stock positions from replacement shipments when calculating realised margins and future purchasing costs. The inventory buffer can delay transmission of carbon-related costs through the supply chain as consumption continues using lower-cost stocks.
Physical premiums influenced by factors beyond CBAM
The impact on physical aluminium premiums has been uneven. Fastmarkets identified only a moderate increase immediately after CBAM began, consistent with availability of inventories accumulated before the end of 2025.
Premiums can also be affected by smelter outages, transport expenses, electricity costs, sanctions, regional demand and metal availability. As a result, a rise in a duty-paid premium cannot be attributed solely to CBAM.
The link between import costs and selling prices depends on how quickly existing stocks are consumed and how replacement shipments are priced. Differences between acquisition costs for inventories and replenishment costs may become more significant for distributors and downstream manufacturers.
CBAM certificate reference price and emissions coverage for aluminium
The third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate reference price increased to €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent, up from €75.28 in the second quarter. Fastmarkets said this quarterly reference price alone is not sufficient to calculate full carbon cost for a shipment.
For aluminium, the current CBAM framework mainly covers direct embedded emissions and includes specific rules for precursor materials. Indirect emissions from purchased electricity are not charged under the aluminium mechanism in the same way as direct emissions.
The final liability also depends on benchmark adjustments and permitted deductions for carbon prices paid abroad. These elements mean that certificate reference pricing must be combined with other parameters to assess shipment-level obligations.
Downstream pricing risks as pre-2026 stocks are used up
Downstream manufacturers may face delayed cost increases as pre-2026 inventories are exhausted. Purchasing contracts negotiated around lower-cost existing stocks could reach maturity when new deliveries carrying CBAM liabilities are required.
Distributors with fixed selling prices that lack provisions to recover verified carbon-related costs may see margin pressure when replenishment expenses rise. Fastmarkets said developments in import volumes, warehouse inventories and the origin of replacement shipments will help determine whether the December 2025 surge mainly shifted purchases between reporting periods or supported longer-term restructuring of European aluminium sourcing.