Carbon pricing at the EU border is moving from preparation to collection, with exporters reporting that products linked to Serbian emissions are now facing CBAM-related costs. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is designed to align the carbon price paid inside the EU with the carbon embedded in imported goods, particularly from sectors considered more emissions-intensive. Industry sources say the timing matters: collection is expected to start next year, while Serbia’s domestic counterpart is already being implemented through measurement, reporting and payment requirements.
Alongside competitiveness concerns for exporters, analysts have flagged a separate macroeconomic risk tied to how carbon costs filter into domestic prices. A key issue raised by market participants is whether higher energy and input costs—especially for electricity and raw materials—could contribute to inflationary pressures in Serbia during the period when CBAM obligations begin to crystallize for EU importers.
CBAM’s border logic and the sectors under scrutiny
CBAM targets emissions associated with production of “dirtier” goods entering the EU market, using a carbon price framework connected to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). Serbia has been in a preparatory phase since October 2023, and from the beginning of this year companies in certain areas have been required to measure, report and pay this levy under national rules. The EU mechanism itself remains an import instrument: the CBAM charges are paid by EU importers rather than directly by Serbian exporters.
The sectors most directly exposed include cement, steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen—industries where carbon intensity is typically higher and where compliance requires detailed emissions data. Exporters note that CBAM costs do not apply uniformly across all shipments; they arise only when covered goods are imported into the EU. Over time, the scope of products covered by CBAM is expected to expand, increasing the share of trade potentially subject to reporting and certificate-related obligations.
Serbia’s counterpart: domestic greenhouse gas tax and timetable
To adapt to CBAM-related competitiveness pressures and avoid double payment dynamics, Serbia introduced its own legal framework as a counterpart. Two laws were adopted: a Law on the tax on emissions of greenhouse gases and a Law on the import tax for carbon-intensive products. Finance Minister Siniša Mali said these measures were intended because exporters would otherwise have been obliged to pay this tax in the EU anyway.
Under Serbia’s greenhouse gas tax law, domestic companies in energy-intensive industries—including fertiliser production, cement, iron, aluminium and electricity—are obliged to pay four euros per tonne of emitted pollution. Payment is scheduled based on documentation submitted in the second quarter of 2027 for emissions from 2026. Industry representatives say this means implementation begins this year, with payment occurring next year.
Carbon price levels and why inflation concerns are emerging
CBAM pricing is expressed as a price per tonne tied to embedded greenhouse gas emissions calculated for covered products. The reference level used in the system is not fixed; last year it ranged between 80 and 90 euros per tonne. Economists and industry participants argue that when carbon costs translate into electricity prices and other inputs—such as aluminium, steel and iron—finished goods can become more expensive, potentially weakening price competitiveness abroad while also feeding domestic inflation.
Raiffeisen Bank’s monthly reporting has also listed CBAM-related levies as a factor that could influence inflation, describing it as a risk while noting that effects may be gradual because taxation is paid annually. The same analysis points to partial mitigation through competition and state incentives such as tax credits, exemptions and technological incentives, though it does not quantify the impact at this stage.
How national taxes can reduce CBAM amounts for importers
Special certificates are central to how CBAM operates at the border: EU importers purchase certificates for each tonne of carbon dioxide embedded in imported products. These certificates are equivalent to emission allowances in the EU ETS on which CBAM prices are based, with revenues flowing into EU budgets and member-state budgets. Where companies in the country of origin already pay a national carbon tax, CBAM amounts can be reduced by that paid amount.
In practical terms described by policy analysts familiar with Serbia’s approach, a national payment of four euros per tonne can reduce what EU importers pay under CBAM by four euros—so if an ETS-linked reference price were 80 euros per tonne, an exporter would face 76 euros in the EU calculation alongside four euros paid domestically. This alignment mechanism is intended to gradually bring Serbia’s national carbon pricing into step with CBAM logic as coverage evolves.
Compliance implications across exporters and EU producers
For Serbian exporters shipping into the EU, compliance hinges on whether products fall within CBAM-covered sectors at shipment time and on whether embedded emissions reporting supports certificate calculations once full implementation phases are reached. For EU importers, due diligence must extend beyond product classification into verified emissions data and documentation that can substantiate any reduction linked to national taxes already paid in Serbia.
For EU producers operating under ETS rules within covered industries, CBAM functions as a competitive safeguard by reducing the risk that imports benefit from lower internal carbon costs. At the same time, both importers and domestic producers face ongoing regulatory pressure tied to decarbonisation: reducing carbon intensity becomes essential not only for meeting climate objectives but also for maintaining market acceptance where buyers increasingly scrutinize environmental performance.