Serbia’s government plans approximately €14.4 billion in energy investment between 2028 and 2035. The programme allocates about €6.5 billion to generation, €2.4 billion to transmission and distribution, €1.2 billion to gas interconnections, and €1.2 billion to oil pipelines.
Renewables projects backed by foreign capital
SANY Renewable Energy has begun construction of the 168 MW Alibunar A and B wind portfolio. The projects require approximately €240 million, use 40 turbines, and are expected to generate around 480 GWh annually.
About 70% of the secured capacity received market-premium support through Serbia’s renewable auction.
The Hyundai Engineering–UGT Renewables programme is set to deliver 1.2 GWp of solar, 1 GW of connection capacity, and 200 MW/400 MWh of battery storage before transfer to EPS. South Korea’s K-Sure is providing approximately €900 million in export financing, with expected annual production of around 1.5 TWh.
Gas generation talks in Niš
In Niš, EPS and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR are negotiating a joint venture for a gas-fired power plant. The project is targeted for completion by 2030.
The joint venture would position SOCAR beyond commodity supply and into Serbian electricity generation.
Negative wholesale prices and storage economics
The investments face changing market economics reflected in recent power price data. SEEPEX recorded a price of minus €45.50/MWh on June 7, with nine consecutive negative hours.
The estimated solar capture price fell to only €1.70/MWh, compared with a daily baseload average of €52.20/MWh. Indicative arbitrage spreads reached €163.60/MWh for two-hour batteries and €151.50/MWh for four-hour systems.
CBAM impact on coal-intensive electricity exports
CBAM adds a separate pressure on coal-intensive EPS operations tied to EU electricity exports. Management estimates approximately €150 million of lost revenue from constrained EU electricity exports.
Serbia’s domestic carbon charge is set at €4 per tonne, which management estimates could cost EPS around €100 million on emissions of 25 million tonnes. The domestic levy remains far below the EU ETS price, limiting the protection it can provide against CBAM liabilities.
Return drivers for the 2028–2035 investment programme
The investment programme is described as large enough to transform Serbia’s generating fleet. Returns are expected to depend on transmission completion, storage deployment, wind and solar capture prices, and carbon exposure.
The programme also depends on EPS implementing operational restructuring without weakening project delivery while managing the effects of negative wholesale prices and grid constraints.