The European Union’s carbon border levy is beginning to reshape trade flows from Serbia toward EU markets, according to industry reporting. Energy-intensive exporters say the early cost signal is already translating into weaker shipment performance. The effect is being linked to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which targets imports associated with higher carbon emissions.
Since the start of the year, companies operating in sectors with high energy consumption have recorded nearly a 30% decline in exports to the EU. The disruption is concentrated among industries that face greater exposure to carbon-related charges embedded in import costs. For EU-bound supply chains, this means commercial terms are increasingly sensitive to the carbon footprint of production.
Energy-intensive trade pressure
CBAM is designed to impose additional costs on imports produced with higher carbon emissions, creating a direct incentive for lower-emissions output. In practical terms, Serbian exporters tied to high-energy processes are experiencing a faster deterioration in competitiveness than firms with lower emissions intensity. This dynamic is emerging before any broader compliance ramp-up effects are fully reflected across all trade channels.
Electricity exports halted from 1 January 2026
Electricity flows have also been affected, with Serbia’s state power utility EPS reporting that no electricity has been delivered to the European Union since 1 January 2026. EPS representatives attribute the change to new carbon pricing rules that reduce the competitiveness of Serbian electricity in the European market. The shift highlights how CBAM-linked cost pressures can alter not only industrial shipments but also cross-border energy trade.
EPS said the CBAM-related charge effectively adds about 78 euros per MWh to the cost of electricity exported to the EU. That additional cost raises prices relative to EU-produced electricity under different regulatory conditions. As a result, market access and dispatch decisions can be influenced by carbon pricing even when physical supply remains available.
Implications for compliance and industrial decarbonization
Together, the reported export decline and the stoppage of electricity deliveries point to a tightening link between carbon policy and commercial outcomes for non-EU suppliers. For importers and downstream buyers, these developments increase the importance of emissions-aware sourcing and trade compliance under CBAM logic aligned with EU ETS expectations. For affected sectors covered by CBAM—such as cement, steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity, and hydrogen—the early signals suggest that competitiveness will increasingly depend on reducing emissions intensity rather than relying on volume alone.
Based strictly on the reported figures, Serbia’s experience shows that CBAM-related costs can quickly affect both industrial exports and electricity deliveries when carbon pricing changes alter relative price positions versus EU producers. The near-30% drop in exports since the start of the year and EPS’s statement of zero deliveries since 1 January 2026 indicate an immediate market impact tied to higher-carbon production exposure.