EUROFER reported that in the first half of 2026 Chinese steel imports rose by 40% year on year, while Indonesian shipments increased by 70%. Total EU steel imports fell by 5% over the same period. Türkiye remained the EU’s largest supplier of finished steel as Serbian exporters operated amid weaker demand and a new EU steel trade measure introduced in July.
For Serbian metals companies, access to European customers depends on more than factory-gate pricing. Import tariffs, customs requirements and CBAM liabilities affect the final delivered cost. The interaction between trade measures and carbon reporting can therefore influence cross-border competitiveness.
Steel supply chains: CBAM scope and emissions calculations
Serbia’s steel industry includes HBIS Serbia integrated works in Smederevo and producers and processors such as Metalfer Steel Mill. In this sector, CBAM exposure depends on the precise customs classification of exported goods and the rules applicable to each product. Operating in the metals industry does not automatically mean every exported item falls within the mechanism’s scope.
For steel, carbon liability is linked to the production route, product category, precursor inputs and verified direct embedded emissions. European customers using applicable default values may face different calculated costs compared with buyers importing material supported by validated, installation-specific emissions data. The CBAM certificate reference price for the third quarter of 2026 is €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent.
The reference price makes accurate emissions calculations part of commercial planning. A generic carbon surcharge cannot reflect differences between products, production facilities or applicable calculation rules. As a result, emissions accounting requirements can vary across shipments even when traded under similar commercial terms.
EU steel quotas add shipment-level cost variables
Serbian steel exporters also need to account for an EU annual duty-free steel import quota of approximately 18.3 million tonnes. A 50% out-of-quota duty applies to relevant steel categories under the quota framework. These elements create additional cost exposure alongside CBAM-related charges.
The effect on an individual shipment depends on country and product allocations, customs origin and remaining quota capacity. Those factors can have a more immediate impact on import costs than changes in the quarterly CBAM certificate reference price. Exporters and their European customers therefore need to assess tariff exposure and carbon liabilities separately.
A shipment’s eligibility for preferential tariff treatment does not by itself determine its CBAM obligations. Customs classification and the applicable rules remain central to both trade-cost outcomes and carbon reporting requirements.
Aluminium: different accounting for electricity-related emissions
Serbia’s aluminium industry includes Impol Seval alongside companies transforming rolled metal into industrial products. The accounting framework for aluminium differs from that used for steel under CBAM. Aluminium production is particularly exposed to electricity costs, but indirect emissions from purchased electricity are not automatically included in the current CBAM charge for aluminium.
Direct process emissions, upstream inputs covered by applicable rules and correct product classification are central to determining carbon liability. This distinction is relevant for factories promoting products as low-carbon because they purchase renewable electricity: electricity procurement alone does not establish the emissions value used for CBAM calculations. Serbian aluminium exporters therefore need to separate broader environmental claims from data required under the mechanism’s specific accounting rules.
Downstream expansion and compliance documentation requirements
Serbian manufacturers of metal-intensive finished goods also face proposed changes to CBAM coverage from 2028 for selected downstream products. Some manufactured goods not currently covered could enter the mechanism, while other products are already within its scope. The final list is subject to EU negotiations following amendments supported by the European Parliament in September 2026.
Until scope and detailed requirements are settled, manufacturers need to assess exposure against applicable rules for each product rather than assume uniform treatment across downstream metal goods. In parallel, traceable emissions data are required for compliance planning in both steel and aluminium exports.
A reliable compliance record needs to connect material origin, production-facility information, emissions calculations and allocation of products to EU customers. Accurate documentation and verification can help buyers distinguish between suppliers and calculate their obligations more precisely. This evidence supports continued positioning of Serbian metals producers within European supply chains as trade restrictions and carbon reporting requirements evolve.