Serbia is moving to introduce a domestic carbon emissions tax for major polluters starting in 2026, while also drafting an import charge for carbon-intensive products. The policy is designed to steer investment toward decarbonisation and to better align national measures with EU climate and trade expectations, including the logic behind border carbon adjustments. For companies operating across the EU market, the timing of Serbia’s rulemaking and the level of the carbon price could influence how costs are managed under existing emissions trading and CBAM-related compliance.
Domestic carbon price begins on 1 January 2026
From January 1, 2026, Serbian companies in high-emitting sectors—including cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, and electricity production—will be required to pay a carbon emissions tax. The scope also extends to firms importing carbon-intensive raw materials, linking upstream procurement decisions to the new cost base. Draft legislation covering both the greenhouse gas emissions tax and an import tax on carbon-intensive products is open for public consultation until October 21.
A first public meeting is scheduled for October 8 at the Serbian Chamber of Commerce. The Ministry of Finance frames the measure as an incentive for decarbonisation rather than a new burden, pointing to support for renewable energy, green construction, and broader emissions-reduction investment. In parallel with EU policy direction, the government’s approach seeks to reduce the risk that domestic operations face higher charges when interacting with EU climate-linked trade rules.
€4 per ton CO₂ versus potential EU CBAM levels
The national carbon tax is set at €4 per ton of CO₂. That level is described as significantly lower than the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which can reach up to €90 per ton depending on circumstances. Serbian authorities indicate that paying the domestic tax could help companies avoid higher EU charges if European authorities recognize Serbia’s carbon certificates.
This recognition condition places certificate credibility and documentation at the centre of cross-border compliance planning. For importers and exporters, it also raises practical questions about how emissions data are verified and how national accounting aligns with EU expectations under the ETS framework that underpins CBAM calculations. While Serbia’s measure is domestic in design, its stated objective is explicitly connected to reducing exposure to EU-level border costs.
Draft “national CBAM” import tax and economic cost estimates
Alongside the emissions tax, Serbia is preparing an import tax on carbon-intensive products intended as a protective instrument for domestic industry against third-country imports. NALED estimates that the overall tax regime could cost Serbia’s economy around €100 million annually, with part of those costs potentially passed through to consumers. The scale of that estimate suggests that sectoral impacts may depend on both production intensity and pricing power in downstream markets.
For firms sourcing inputs from abroad—especially in energy- and process-intensive supply chains—the import component could change procurement strategies ahead of implementation. It also creates a compliance need similar in structure to other border-linked regimes: companies will likely have to demonstrate emissions-related characteristics of goods and inputs in order to determine liability. Even where EU ETS coverage already exists for certain activities, additional national charges can alter total landed cost calculations for trade flows.
Winners and pressure points across covered industries
Stakeholders have highlighted uneven effects across sectors. Exporters such as aluminium and steel producers may benefit from protection associated with EU CBAM dynamics, while non-export segments—cement production in particular—could face higher costs if they cannot offset additional charges through sales into markets shielded by border adjustments. Electricity generation is also expected to carry a significant share of the tax burden given its central role in power supply and indirect emissions exposure.
EPS, Serbia’s state electricity company, is expected to be among those most affected by the new pricing signal. A proposed tax credit of up to 80% is intended to encourage decarbonisation and a shift toward renewable energy generation, which could partially offset costs for power producers that invest in lower-carbon capacity or operational changes.
Decarbonisation measures in cement: clinker reduction and alternative fuels
Cement producer Moravacem, part of multinational CRH group, points to ongoing decarbonisation actions including reducing clinker content, using alternative fuels, and improving plant energy efficiency. The company says these steps align with Serbia’s national strategy and EU requirements aimed at lowering carbon footprints while maintaining competitiveness in international markets. For cement producers across Europe’s supply chain, such measures are relevant because process emissions are difficult to abate quickly without changes to fuel mix and production technology.
Taken together with Serbia’s planned certificate recognition approach for avoiding higher EU charges, these operational investments may become more valuable as companies prepare documentation systems for both domestic liability and potential EU-facing reporting needs. In practical terms, industrial decarbonisation plans may increasingly need to demonstrate measurable reductions early enough to influence future cost exposure under ETS-linked frameworks.
Broader compliance implications under ETS-linked trade rules
Serbia’s move adds another layer of carbon-related cost management for companies connected to European markets where ETS coverage and CBAM logic already shape trade compliance. Even though Serbia’s implementation starts domestically on January 1, 2026, its stated goal of aligning with EU standards means that certificate recognition and emissions accounting will likely be scrutinized by counterparties trading into or operating within the EU regulatory environment.
For importers dealing with carbon-intensive raw materials or products covered by Serbia’s planned import tax rules, compliance readiness will likely hinge on verified emissions data and consistent product characterization. For exporters in covered sectors such as steel and aluminium—and for electricity-linked value chains—the interaction between domestic taxation incentives and EU border-cost exposure could influence investment priorities across hydrogen-adjacent decarbonisation pathways as well as broader electrification efforts.
Overall, Serbia’s draft legislation signals a shift toward more explicit carbon pricing across heavy industry supply chains—cement, steelmaking inputs including iron and aluminium processes, fertiliser production routes where process emissions matter most, electricity generation systems supplying industrial demand—and it underscores how domestic policy design can affect cross-border competitiveness under Europe’s Green Deal-aligned regulatory landscape.