Serbia exported €17.97bn of goods in the first half of 2026, up 8.3% year on year. Imports increased by 3.7% to €21.68bn, narrowing the trade deficit by 14.1% to €3.71bn. The European Union accounted for 58.7% of Serbia’s external trade, while exports to CEFTA reached €2.37bn and generated a surplus of almost €1.59bn. Annualising the first-half export performance implies a goods-export run rate of about €35.9bn.
At that export level, a standard 30-day receivables cycle corresponds to roughly €3bn of outstanding invoices, rising to about €4.4bn at 45 days and €5.9bn at 60 days. The figures are presented as a gross analytical envelope rather than an estimate of immediately bankable demand. Part of Serbia’s trade includes intra-group flows, advance payments, supplier credit and transactions financed directly by foreign parent companies. The envelope nevertheless indicates the scale of working-capital demand that can be supported through pre-export lending and related structures.
Working-capital capacity in Serbian banking
Corporate lending expanded by 12% year on year in March 2026, bringing the corporate loan stock to RSD1.91tn. That level equals 18.2% of GDP and 47.4% of total bank lending, according to the data cited. The loan-to-deposit ratio stayed around 82%, while the capital adequacy ratio stood at 19.5%. Corporate non-performing loans were 1.4% overall, with manufacturing at 2.8%.
Loan growth also reflected changes in how credit was deployed during the first quarter of 2026. Corporate loans rose by RSD27bn, with RSD24.6bn coming from liquidity and working-capital facilities. Working-capital loans increased to 47.9% of the corporate portfolio, while liabilities classified specifically as import, export and investment loans declined. Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises accounted for 60.6% of corporate lending.
The financing mix suggests that effective export finance is not confined to a narrowly defined “export loan” category. Exporters increasingly fund production using general liquidity lines, current-account borrowing, supplier credit and receivables finance tied to export contracts as the underlying cash-flow source. Financing conditions remained supportive in June, with new dinar corporate loans averaging 7.1%, including 6.8% for working-capital facilities.
In euro terms, new euro and euro-indexed corporate lending averaged 5.1%, compared with 2.9% on new foreign-currency corporate deposits in June data cited in the report. The headline difference was described as about 220 basis points, but not as a net interest margin because reserve requirements, liquidity costs, hedging expenses, operating costs, credit losses and capital consumption must be deducted. The equivalent dinar loan-deposit difference was about 170 basis points.
EU CBAM scope and importer-level threshold effects
CBAM introduces a new dividing line within export finance markets as it links carbon obligations to covered imports into the EU. Since 1 January 2026, the definitive EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has applied to cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen. For cement, iron and steel, aluminium and fertilisers, the exemption threshold is set at 50 tonnes of net mass aggregated across relevant customs codes for each EU importer during the calendar year.
Electricity and hydrogen have no equivalent mass exemption under the described rules. Once an importer crosses the threshold, CBAM obligations apply to embedded emissions in all covered goods imported by that company during the year, including shipments made before the threshold was exceeded. The threshold is attributed to the EU importer rather than to the Serbian producer supplying the goods.
This importer-level structure can produce different carbon-cost profiles for receivables linked to the same Serbian borrower depending on which EU customer buys the product. A Serbian steel or aluminium company may sell identical output to one European customer below the threshold and another fully within CBAM coverage. If an EU buyer crosses late in the year, an in-year catch-up requirement can cover earlier shipments.
The described effect is that traditional borrower-level credit analysis becomes insufficient on its own because banks increasingly need buyer-level and invoice-level CBAM information. While legal financial responsibility remains with the authorised EU CBAM declarant, economic burden can shift through contract mechanisms such as lower purchasing prices or carbon-cost adjustment clauses.
CBAM settlement timing and documentation requirements
The first CBAM declaration for 2026 must be submitted by 30 September 2027, together with surrender of corresponding certificates under the described timetable. Certificate sales begin on 1 February 2027. From 2027, an authorised declarant must maintain a quarterly certificate balance covering at least 50% of its year-to-date embedded emissions.
For 2026 imports, certificate values are calculated using the quarterly average EU ETS auction price for the quarter when goods were imported. The report characterises 2026 primarily as a data, verification and contracting year while commercial repricing is already occurring because EU buyers expect financial settlement later in time.
The European Commission guidance published on 14 August 2026 is described as reinforcing this distinction through monitoring and calculation requirements rather than immediate payment timing alone. The package comprises ten documents: four general guides and six sector-specific guides covering cement, hydrogen, fertilisers, iron and steel, aluminium and electricity.
The guidance focuses on monitoring plans, actual-emissions calculations, default values, verification processes and adjustments reflecting remaining allocation of free EU ETS allowances. Serbian producers intending to use actual emissions instead of default values are said to require an auditable chain from production inputs and energy consumption through to emissions figures delivered to EU customers.
Domestic carbon pricing alongside CBAM calculations
The report states that CBAM should not be treated as a simple full carbon tax on embedded emissions from day one because free-allocation adjustments phase out over time. It cites a 2026 CBAM factor of 97.5%, falling progressively to zero by 2034. Payable amounts depend on embedded emissions, product benchmarks, CBAM factors and other prescribed adjustments.
The same section says it is incorrect to assume either that only 2.5% is automatically chargeable or that full emissions footprints are immediately exposed at prevailing EU ETS prices for all installations. Plants operating materially above relevant benchmarks remain more vulnerable than efficient installations even during early phase-in periods.
Serbia introduced a domestic greenhouse-gas emissions tax mechanism from 1 January 2026. The tax applies to installations producing fertilisers, cement, crude iron, steel and ferroalloys, aluminium and electricity under the described scope.
The tax rate is stated as €4 per tonne of CO₂ or CO₂-equivalent expressed in dinars; however it is not described as a universal €4 charge on total footprints because taxable base equals total verified emissions less prescribed reference emissions. Qualifying electricity producers can obtain a tax credit equal to 20% of eligible decarbonisation investment capped at 80% of tax liability.
Camb electricity benchmarks used for cost estimates
The report highlights electricity default assumptions as an example of potential exposure levels under CBAM calculations. It cites an average CBAM certificate benchmark derived from EU ETS auctions of €75.28 per tonne of CO₂ in Q2 2026 versus €75.36 in Q1 2026.
A Serbia electricity default factor is given as 1.041 tonnes CO₂ per MWh, implying an estimated CBAM cost of €78.366 per imported MWh using that benchmark approach described in the text.
An illustrative case is provided: at that default factor, a 10GWh electricity export would carry a gross carbon value of approximately €784,000, before any permitted use of actual emissions or other relief mechanisms referenced in the report.
The Energy Community reported that gross electricity exchanges between the Western Balkans and the EU were about 19% lower year on year in first-half 2026 data cited here. It also cautioned that CBAM cannot be isolated from hydrology-related changes affecting prices, generation availability and regional trading patterns.
Banks’ product-level underwriting for covered sectors
The report describes industrial export finance as requiring product-level information rather than generic environmental questionnaires for covered sectors under CBAM categories cited earlier: steel routes for steel producers; electricity sourcing evidence for aluminium; clinker ratios plus plant-level monitoring for cement; direct and relevant indirect emissions clarity plus precursor treatment for fertilisers.
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