Serbian electricity exported to the European Union carries an indicative Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism cost of about €78.37/MWh when the national default emission factor is applied. The figure is presented as a potential pressure point as the actual-emissions route tightens. The default value is linked to the CBAM default approach used when installation-specific emissions are not demonstrated.
The calculation uses Serbia’s default factor of 1.041 tonnes of CO₂ per MWh and the second-quarter CBAM certificate price of €75.28 per tonne. On that basis, the charge associated with exported electricity is described as around €78/MWh. The comparison is framed against price differentials between Serbia and neighbouring EU markets.
The resulting charge is reported as significantly larger than many historical spreads between Serbia and adjacent EU electricity prices. In the second quarter, the average Hungarian price was about €13/MWh higher than Serbia’s, which is described as far below the implied default CBAM cost. This gap is used to illustrate how the default mechanism could affect cross-border competitiveness.
How CBAM obligations are settled and assigned in trade
The analysis states that the full default amount does not automatically apply to every commercial flow from Serbia. Importers are expected to settle their CBAM obligations through the EU compliance system. It also notes that contractual responsibility for the cost can be allocated among the producer, trader and authorised declarant.
The default value is described as establishing economic exposure when parties cannot show installation-specific emissions under EU requirements. In such cases, the mechanism relies on default parameters rather than verified data tied to specific generation assets. The exposure therefore depends on whether evidence for actual emissions can be provided for each claimed quantity.
Actual-emissions pathway for renewable electricity
Renewable producers can seek treatment under an actual-emissions approach, which may reduce embedded emissions toward zero. However, it is stated that this requires more than demonstrating that electricity originates from a wind, solar or hydro installation. The EU framework requires a traceable evidence chain for each megawatt-hour claimed.
The evidence chain cited includes a qualifying physical PPA, hourly production data, cross-border capacity nominations, transit-country documentation, allocated imported quantities and independent verification. Each claimed megawatt-hour must be traceable to the authorised CBAM declarant using it in the EU declaration. This links physical delivery and allocation records to reporting obligations.
Serbia’s operational Guarantees of Origin registry is described as able to support renewable sourcing and prevent double counting. At the same time, certificates are characterised as not a substitute for physical-delivery evidence in this context. The text adds that a producer selling a GoO separately from the power may have no basis for claiming that associated electricity was delivered to a particular EU declarant.
Spillover effects for EU-bound industrial exports
The exposure described extends beyond direct electricity exports into the EU market. Serbian suppliers serving manufacturers exporting steel, aluminium, fertilisers or other carbon-intensive goods to the EU may face requests for credible electricity emissions data from buyers and verifiers. This links electricity sourcing documentation to downstream reporting needs.
The immediate commercial divide is expected between generators selling undifferentiated Serbian electricity under the national default factor and installations able to deliver a controlled, verified renewable package. Under this framing, verified delivery and allocation determine whether actual-emissions treatment can be pursued rather than relying on defaults.
With the default route set at €78/MWh, the text describes it as more than a reporting disadvantage. It is presented as potentially affecting whether an export trade is viable at all when installation-specific emissions cannot be demonstrated under EU rules. The impact therefore depends on evidence availability for each quantity declared.