European fertiliser importers are managing carbon-border costs alongside tariffs, natural gas price volatility and concerns about reliance on a limited number of external suppliers. This combination is increasing the complexity of sourcing decisions as buyers compare emissions, availability and delivered prices.
Early-2026 ammonia trade data points to changing flows. Shipping figures cited by S&P Global show EU seaborne ammonia imports at approximately 717,000 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, down from 787,000 tonnes in the previous quarter. US shipments fell from around 90,000 tonnes to 40,000 tonnes, while Algeria accounted for approximately 30% of first-quarter arrivals.
Market participants linked part of the decline in US shipments to the default emissions treatment under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The figures cover seaborne ammonia rather than the full range of fertilisers or all EU imports.
Ammonia trade coverage and product-specific CBAM scope
Ammonia, nitrogenous fertilisers and other goods covered by CBAM have different customs classifications and production routes. Phosphate and potash fertilisers cannot be automatically included in carbon-exposure estimates solely because they are agricultural inputs. Reliable assessments require product-specific classifications and data.
The emissions profile used for CBAM calculations depends on how production is characterised under the rules. For ammonia, natural gas remains a major feedstock and cost component in conventional production. The plant emissions profile is shaped by operational efficiency, fuel use, the hydrogen production route and the treatment of relevant upstream inputs.
Default values versus verified installation-specific emissions
Producers with credible installation-specific emissions data may be able to demonstrate a lower embedded-emissions footprint than applicable default values would indicate. This is possible where the rules permit use of verified actual figures. Access to reliable production data can therefore affect comparisons between competing suppliers.
The treatment of fertilisers also differs from other CBAM sectors. The European Commission’s default-value mark-up for fertilisers is not the same as mark-ups applied to steel, cement and aluminium. Comparing default-value adjustments across sectors without accounting for different rules could lead to misleading conclusions about relative carbon costs.
CBAM certificate reference price and components of liability
The third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate reference price was €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent. While this price affects the economics of covered imports, it does not by itself determine an importer’s complete liability.
The calculation also depends on applicable free-allocation benchmarks, emissions figures accepted under the rules and any recognised carbon payments made in the country of production. Importers must consider these elements alongside natural gas supply risks, freight charges, trade-defence measures and any relevant product-specific customs duties.
A lower certificate-related cost does not necessarily translate into the lowest overall purchase price. Gas prices, production efficiency and logistics can materially influence an ammonia supplier’s competitiveness.
Russian and Belarusian import policy and procurement decisions
EU policy towards Russian and Belarusian fertiliser imports adds another variable to procurement choices. Duties and diversification measures can encourage buyers to seek alternative suppliers, including producers whose emissions advantages may be small or not yet verified.
Changes in trade flows must be interpreted carefully. A declining share for a particular origin does not necessarily show that CBAM is responsible; tariffs, energy prices, shipping costs and supply availability can also affect purchasing decisions.
Short-term increases in fertiliser prices can create additional political pressure because higher input costs affect farmers’ production budgets. For importers and distributors, this makes it important to distinguish effects of carbon pricing from wider trade and energy-market developments.
Contracting, inventory financing and emissions-data requirements
European fertiliser distributors may increasingly need reliable supplier emissions data as part of annual contracting. This would sit alongside product specifications, delivery schedules and credit terms.
Contracts that provide access to relevant production information could help importers assess potential CBAM exposure and compare offers more consistently. Financing inventory ahead of the planting season also requires careful consideration of potential carbon liabilities.
Distributors may face a mismatch between the timing of import-related costs and their ability to pass those costs on to farmers. This risk can be heightened when demand is price-sensitive or when supply contracts limit immediate price adjustments.
Supply security versus embedded-emissions reduction goals
Europe’s objectives of securing affordable fertiliser supplies and reducing embedded emissions do not automatically align. Buyers need sufficient nitrogen products at workable prices while CBAM creates incentives to account for carbon emissions and, where supported by applicable rules, favour lower-emission production.
The commercial outcome depends on how carbon costs interact with energy prices, trade measures and the quality of supplier data. Producers able to combine reliable deliveries with verifiable emissions information may be positioned to establish durable relationships with European customers.