The European Commission has set the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism certificate price at EUR 82.32 per tonne of CO₂ for the third quarter of 2026. The figure increases the carbon reference used in calculations for covered imports. It compares with EUR 75.28 in the second quarter and EUR 75.36 in the first quarter, a rise of approximately 9.4% from April-June.
The quarterly change is linked to how EU Emissions Trading System auction prices feed into carbon-cost calculations for imported industrial goods. For manufacturers and importers, the movement affects how verified emissions intensity is treated in procurement and delivered-cost assessments. The published certificate price is therefore used as an input to calculations rather than as a uniform charge per product weight.
The Commission’s published rate is not described as a flat amount applied to every tonne of imported steel, aluminium or cement. Instead, it corresponds to the price of a tonne of qualifying carbon emissions. The number of certificates required depends on embedded emissions, applicable free-allocation adjustments, emissions calculation methodology, eligibility for deductions based on carbon prices paid abroad, and whether the product is within CBAM coverage.
Quarterly reference price links ETS auctions to CBAM calculations
Because the certificate requirement depends on embedded emissions, two shipments of the same product can show different gross carbon exposure if their production processes generate different emissions. Transitional arrangements are also described as affecting timing, with immediate 2026 liability for industrial imports potentially substantially below the gross value implied by the quarterly reference price. This means gross carbon exposure and payable liability may diverge during the transition.
The relationship between product emissions and the quarterly certificate price can be illustrated using a direct calculation based on EUR 82.32 per tonne of CO₂. Under that rate, one tonne of qualifying emissions corresponds to a gross carbon reference value of EUR 82.32 before applicable adjustments. The same approach is used to translate emissions intensity into euro values used in carbon reference calculations.
For a production process emitting 0.5 tonnes of CO₂ per unit, the gross reference value is EUR 41.16 per unit. At an emissions intensity of 1.5 tonnes, the corresponding gross reference value rises to EUR 123.48. The figures are presented as illustrative carbon equivalents rather than final CBAM assessments or amounts payable.
Emissions intensity drives gross exposure for industrial goods
The treatment of imported electricity follows a different calculation profile from industrial products under the described framework. Imported electricity does not receive the industrial free-allocation adjustment, so the emissions factor attributed per imported megawatt-hour becomes particularly important. The calculation therefore depends on how emissions are quantified for each MWh imported.
Using an assumed emissions factor of 0.5 tonnes of CO₂ per MWh, the gross reference value is EUR 41.16/MWh. With an emissions factor of 0.9 tonnes per MWh, the illustrative value becomes EUR 74.09/MWh. The actual outcome depends on applicable calculation rules, supporting emissions evidence and eligible deductions for carbon payments.
The described framework also notes that a generator cannot establish a lower emissions factor simply by stating that its power has low actual emissions; relevant requirements must be met. This links electricity import calculations to documentation and compliance conditions rather than declarations alone.
Procurement and supplier data affect carbon-reference comparisons
The difference in carbon intensity between suppliers can be commercially significant for procurement teams relative to the headline certificate price alone. At EUR 82.32/tCO₂, an emissions difference of 0.4 tonnes corresponds to a gross carbon-reference difference of EUR 32.93 per unit, before adjustments. This reflects how variations in verified emissions translate into euro differences in carbon reference values.
The source material states that where supplier differences are supported by credible installation-level data, they can be used as a basis for negotiation against competing producers. Unsupported or unverified low-carbon claims may leave buyers needing to account for default emissions values instead of verified figures.
The relevance of verified emission differences is described as continuing even while free-allocation adjustments moderate industrial CBAM liabilities during the initial phase. As transition arrangements progress, lower verified emissions are described as becoming more significant in cost comparisons where they affect calculated exposures.
Separate gross reference, free allocation and payable obligation
Importers preparing cost comparisons are advised to keep three elements separate: the gross carbon reference value, the applicable free-allocation adjustment and the estimated payable CBAM obligation. Combining these elements into a single figure can obscure assumptions behind calculations used for planning and assessment.
Exporters are also described as needing both actual-emissions and default-value scenarios before agreeing on carbon-adjusted delivered prices with EU customers. A facility with reliable actual emissions records and evidence of eligible domestic carbon payments may show lower net exposure than a competitor relying on default values.
The source material also indicates that plants with particularly high direct emissions could face higher net exposure under those scenario comparisons, depending on which inputs apply under CBAM rules.
Certificate timing ties quarterly pricing to shipment dates
The timing of certificate purchases adds another element to importers’ calculations under CBAM timelines described in the source material. Certificates covering emissions from 2026 imports will become available for purchase from February 2027. The applicable reference price is linked to the quarter when goods entered the EU.
The source material warns that using a current spot allowance quotation as a substitute for the relevant quarterly CBAM price can result in applying an incorrect reference to imports. Accurate shipment dates, customs declarations and quarter-specific emissions records are therefore needed to maintain a reliable liability ledger tied to quarter-specific pricing.
For exporters, providing EU customers with installation and product-level emissions information is described as supporting relevant calculations tied to those quarters. Documentation of eligible carbon payments made in the country of production can also affect net exposure when recognition requirements are met.
The quarterly CBAM price series is described as becoming an industrial market reference alongside exchange rates, electricity prices and freight costs. While it does not determine competitiveness for an individual shipment on its own, it assigns a transparent euro value to qualifying emissions entering EU import calculations under CBAM.