Albania and North Macedonia entered the definitive CBAM period with different positions in the regional electricity market, reflected in their power links with Greece. The contrast at the Greek border highlights differences between hydropower-based and fossil-intensive electricity systems. Market data for 2026 shows diverging price conditions and different carbon cost implications for exports.
In Q2 2026, Albania averaged €88.6/MWh, while Greece averaged €90.2/MWh. The day-ahead price spread narrowed to €1.6/MWh, compared with a €10.6/MWh spread in Q1. Despite the reduced premium, scheduled Albanian exports to Greece remained broadly stable at around 196 GWh, up by about 3% year on year.
Albania’s CBAM position is linked to its zero default emission factor. With a hydro-dominated generation mix, the country can remain competitive even when the day-ahead price differential is extremely narrow. During periods of strong hydrological conditions, the zero factor provides a structural advantage relative to electricity from more carbon-intensive neighbouring systems.
North Macedonia faces limited arbitrage and higher implied CBAM costs
North Macedonia showed an opposite pattern in the same border market. Its average day-ahead price was €91.6/MWh, close to Greece’s €90.2/MWh, leaving virtually no conventional export arbitrage opportunity. In parallel, North Macedonia’s national default emission factor was 0.887 tCO2/MWh.
Using that default factor, the implied CBAM cost for North Macedonian electricity was approximately €66.77/MWh. Scheduled exports from North Macedonia to Greece fell by 78% year on year. Over the same period, Greek exports towards North Macedonia increased by around 70%.
The shift in flows coincided with changes in Greece’s generation mix. Growing solar and wind generation strengthened Greece’s role as a regional electricity supplier. This development reversed Greece’s traditional position as a major destination for power exports from the Balkans.
Default factors and verification requirements shape exporter outcomes
The border comparison indicates that CBAM does not affect all non-EU electricity exporters in the same way. Albania can maintain access to the EU market without relying as heavily on complex actual-value procedures because its default emission factor is zero. By contrast, North Macedonia’s generation structure implies exposure to a substantial carbon cost.
The exposure applies even where electricity includes renewable generation that may not yet be able to demonstrate installation-specific emissions. This difference affects how exporters handle compliance pathways under CBAM. It also influences how carbon costs interact with day-ahead price spreads at the Greek border.
The divergence is also described as affecting investment conditions across both systems. Albanian hydropower, solar and wind projects can develop cross-border strategies around Greek and wider EU price benchmarks with comparatively limited carbon exposure. Renewable projects in North Macedonia require stronger compliance and verification arrangements to avoid assessment against a national fossil-based emission factor.
Data reporting gaps can affect perceived carbon intensity
North Macedonia’s solar contribution may be understated in regional datasets used for assessments. Part of its output is reported only as forecast generation, while distribution-connected production is largely absent from reporting. The data limitation is described as commercially relevant for how generation mixes are represented.
If renewable output cannot be fully documented, it may appear more carbon intensive than the actual production mix. That mismatch can increase exposure to CBAM-related costs tied to reported emissions factors. In turn, differences in documentation can influence how electricity is evaluated for cross-border compliance purposes.
Different operational priorities for Albania and North Macedonia
The two countries are therefore described as having different strategic priorities for cross-border trade with Greece. Albania needs to convert its zero-factor advantage into bankable cross-border PPAs and stronger transmission integration. North Macedonia needs to strengthen renewable metering, power-system data reporting, contractual traceability, and access to actual-value verification.
The electricity border with Greece is already showing commercial consequences tied to these differences in CBAM-related readiness and documentation capacity. Export patterns between the two directions—Albania to Greece versus Greece to North Macedonia—reflect those contrasting outcomes under the same regional market conditions.