The “definitive” phase of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is linking national electricity emission factors to the commercial cost of power exported from the Western Balkans to the European Union. At prevailing certificate prices, that implied cost is reported to be high enough to exceed the visible wholesale price spread on major carbon-intensive export corridors.
In Q2 2026, the average CBAM certificate price was €75.28/tCO₂, compared with €75.36/tCO₂ in Q1 2026. Daily auction prices in Q2 ranged from €70.60 to €80.43/tCO₂, with short-term volatility described as lower than in the first quarter.
Implied CBAM charges using national default emission factors
Using national default emission factors, the quarterly average certificate price translated into implied CBAM costs of €86.42/MWh for Bosnia and Herzegovina and €78.37/MWh for Serbia. For Kosovo, the implied cost was €74.08/MWh, while Montenegro was assessed at €73.70/MWh.
North Macedonia’s implied CBAM cost was reported at €66.77/MWh. Albania’s default emission factor was stated as zero, leaving its implied CBAM cost at €0/MWh.
Wholesale spread comparisons on key export routes
The report compares those implied charges with wholesale price spreads on specific corridors. Serbia’s average discount to Hungary was around €12.9/MWh, which is described as far below the €78.37/MWh implied cost under its national default factor.
Montenegro’s discount to Italy was approximately €27.2/MWh, compared with a default-factor charge of nearly €74/MWh. North Macedonia traded close to parity with Greece while carrying an implied CBAM cost of almost €67/MWh.
Limits on arbitrage and requirements for emissions data
The figures are presented as evidence that simple day-ahead arbitrage is insufficient when exports are priced entirely under national default factors. The report states that commercial transactions may instead depend on hourly price peaks, contractual positions, and transit demand.
It also points to expectations of regulatory changes and whether market participants can use actual embedded-emission values where eligible. In this framework, access to verified emissions information is treated as a determining factor for how costs apply across the export process.
Implications for renewable generation and cross-border trading
The national-factor approach is described as creating challenges for renewable projects in Serbia and Montenegro. A wind, hydropower or solar plant may have operational emissions close to zero, but its electricity can still be assessed using a national emission factor influenced by lignite generation unless requirements for using actual values are met.
The report says that this can leave generators exposed commercially to the carbon intensity of the wider national power system rather than their own plant’s profile. It contrasts this with Albania’s predominantly hydropower-based system continuing exports to Greece despite a price spread of only €1.6/MWh.
Regional shifts in electricity flows under CBAM-linked costs
The document reports that Albania’s zero default factor supported competitiveness even when conventional wholesale arbitrage was almost absent. By contrast, it states that North Macedonia saw exports to Greece fall by 78%, while Greek exports in the opposite direction increased by around 70%.
These changes are described as contributing to an emerging two-tier regional electricity market. Low-carbon power systems are said to retain access to EU buyers at relatively narrow price spreads, while carbon-intensive systems require exceptionally wide spreads, verifiable low-carbon generation, or another commercial incentive.
Effects on new investment assumptions and financing
The impact is also described as extending beyond existing electricity trade through national emission factors affecting projected revenues for new renewable projects. It further links these factors to the value of cross-border PPAs and lenders’ willingness to finance merchant market exposure.
A project whose base-case assumptions depend on access to Hungarian or Italian wholesale prices could face a revenue downgrade if that access relies on a verification framework that is not yet fully operational. In that context, CBAM electricity provisions are characterized as operating like a border carbon charge where origin and emissions cannot be adequately documented.
The report states that costs depend not only on generation technology but also on whether contractual arrangements, metering, and verification can demonstrate identity and emissions profile throughout the export process from origin through delivery into the EU market.