The financial impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) varies between cement and nitrogen fertiliser producers, reflecting differences in transport economics, production costs and customer purchasing patterns. Cement demand is shaped by local supply conditions and delivery costs, while nitrogen fertiliser profitability is tied to natural gas prices, international trade and seasonal demand.
Both sectors include products covered by CBAM, but the carbon cost applied depends on customs classification, covered emissions, benchmark adjustments and eligible carbon-price deductions. A uniform surcharge across all cementitious products or fertiliser formulations would not reflect differences in composition and manufacturing processes.
For producers and investors, the key commercial issue is how much of a carbon-adjusted price can be recovered from customers without reducing sales volumes. The outcome depends on each sector’s cost structure and market conditions.
Heidelberg Materials reports lower clinker incorporation
Heidelberg Materials reported a clinker incorporation factor of 67.8% in the first half of 2026, down from 68.5% a year earlier. Even with the reduction, the company said specific net emissions were 510 kg CO2 per tonne of cementitious material in its first-half 2026 presentation.
The group said it is pursuing measures that include lower clinker content and carbon capture technologies alongside its exposure to carbon policy. It also noted that its reported emissions indicator is intended to describe broader business performance rather than serve automatically as a CBAM emissions factor for an individual imported product.
Heidelberg Materials recorded first-half revenue of approximately €10.58 billion and operating EBITDA of €1.90 billion. The company’s results reflect an international building-materials portfolio covering aggregates and ready-mixed concrete as well as cement, with earnings influenced by regional construction demand.
In this context, CBAM exposure needs to be assessed at the relevant product and trade level rather than inferred from consolidated revenue or operating performance. The company’s emissions indicator was described as not directly transferable to product-level CBAM calculations.
Cement pricing depends on delivery economics and construction demand
Cement’s relatively low value compared with transport costs makes delivery distance, terminal access and handling key determinants of competitiveness. If carbon costs raise the delivered price of competing imports, domestic producers may have room to improve selling prices or increase capacity utilisation.
The potential benefit depends on demand conditions. In a weak construction market, customers may reduce purchases or switch to alternative materials instead of absorbing the full carbon-related price increase.
An illustrative €8 per tonne improvement in margin across 3 million tonnes of cement sales would generate €24 million before additional costs. The actual return would differ if achieving the improvement required investment such as a new terminal, kiln expenditure or long-term commitments for carbon transport.
Infrastructure requirements can also affect when emissions-reduction projects generate financial returns. A reduction in emissions does not necessarily translate immediately into additional cash flow if supporting infrastructure and capital expenditure remain necessary.
Fertiliser decarbonisation links ammonia sourcing to carbon costs
Fertiliser producers face different commercial variables under CBAM-linked cost changes. Natural gas prices influence ammonia production costs, while the effect of ammonia procurement on finished-product economics depends on each company’s assets and product configuration.
Yara said in its second-quarter 2026 presentation that its emissions footprint was below the average for CBAM importers. The company identified ways to reduce carbon costs including sourcing low-carbon ammonia and developing the Sluiskil carbon capture project targeting capture of up to 800,000 tonnes of CO2 from mid-2026.
The 800,000-tonne figure was presented as the project’s stated capture target rather than a verified volume already captured. Yara said this distinction matters when assessing how the project contributes to emissions performance and related commercial benefits.
Yara also reported that higher margins more than offset lower volumes during the quarter. Volatile nitrogen prices delayed some off-season purchasing, reflecting seasonal buying patterns alongside changes in European carbon policy.
Carbon cost pass-through depends on farmers’ purchasing decisions
An importer facing higher carbon-adjusted fertiliser costs may try to recover increases through distributors and farmers. The extent of pass-through depends on buyers’ ability and willingness to pay.
When expectations for crop revenues are weak, farmers may postpone purchases or adjust fertiliser application plans. Producers then face a choice between holding inventory or reducing prices to maintain sales, affecting working capital and margins.
These dynamics make purchase timing particularly important during seasonal demand periods. Even if some additional carbon cost can be recovered, delayed orders can affect sales volumes and inventory requirements during the relevant purchasing season.
The exposure differs from cement because pricing in fertilisers is influenced by energy costs, ammonia sourcing, international price movements and the agricultural purchasing cycle. These factors determine how much of carbon-related expense can be passed through to downstream buyers.
Southeast European exporters face CBAM calculation effects on EU offers
For exporters in Southeast Europe, competitive gas costs or favourable local logistics can help preserve access to European markets. However, emissions evidence and precursor data used for CBAM calculations also affect what EU buyers receive in commercial offers.
If European sales become less competitive due to these factors, exporters may redirect volumes to other destinations. Changes in trade flows can affect prices elsewhere depending on volumes involved and conditions in those markets.
For cement producers, competitiveness is linked to local delivered-cost performance, construction demand and investment required for emissions reductions support. For fertiliser producers, profitability depends more directly on competitive energy and ammonia supply as well as access to buyers during seasonal demand periods.
Across both sectors, the financial benefit from carbon-adjusted pricing depends on how much additional revenue remains after production costs and how customers respond to higher prices. The response can vary by market conditions described for cement deliveries and fertiliser purchasing cycles.