Türkiye stayed the European Union’s largest source of finished steel in the first half of 2026, even as deliveries dropped and Asian producers increased competition. The shift in trade conditions is raising the relevance of emissions verification, tariff-quota availability and the overall cost of supplying European customers. EUROFER data show Türkiye’s share and shipment trends alongside changes in other supplier countries.
In the first six months of 2026, Türkiye accounted for 15.7% of EU finished-steel imports, according to EUROFER. Türkiye’s shipments declined 16% year on year. Over the same period, deliveries from China rose 40%, while imports from Indonesia increased 70%.
The reduction in Türkiye’s volumes coincided with a contraction in the broader EU steel import market. As a result, lower shipments do not by themselves indicate that carbon-related costs led to a competitiveness loss across all steel products. The figures also reflect changing supplier dynamics within the EU import market.
Production routes and verified emissions in CBAM calculations
Geographical proximity to European markets supports Türkiye’s position through shorter transport times and established customer relationships. Some Turkish steelmaking facilities also use electric-arc furnaces, which can produce different emissions profiles compared with other production routes. These factors can affect how products are assessed for emissions-related purposes.
Electric-arc-furnace capacity alone does not determine a product’s CBAM liability. The assessment depends on the specific steel product, scrap and other precursor materials used, furnace operations, direct process emissions and the applicable production benchmark. Electricity procurement is also relevant for industrial costs and carbon reporting.
For European buyers, access to reliable emissions information is an additional comparison factor between suppliers. Imports assessed using applicable default emissions values may generate higher calculated carbon liabilities than products supported by verified actual data. This can influence commercial outcomes when offers are compared on total delivered cost.
A Turkish exporter with incomplete traceability could face a less favourable cost position than competitors elsewhere, even if its production facility operates more efficiently. In that context, comparisons increasingly rely on documented product-level emissions rather than country of origin alone. This approach links supplier documentation quality to import-side carbon cost calculations.
EU duty-free quota limits from July 2026
Separate from CBAM exposure, steel-specific trade measures affect Turkish exporters’ access to the EU market. From July 2026, the EU annual duty-free steel import quota was limited to approximately 18.3 million tonnes. A 50% out-of-quota duty applies to imports exceeding the relevant allowances.
Türkiye’s existing commercial relationship with the EU does not remove the need to check whether each steel product qualifies under its applicable country-specific allocation. It also requires confirming whether sufficient quota capacity remains available for a given shipment. Quota eligibility therefore remains a distinct element of import cost planning.
Quota access and CBAM exposure impact different components of total import costs for European customers. Buyers are therefore expected to consider both tariff treatment and carbon-related liability when comparing offers from Turkish mills and competing international suppliers. The two cost components can vary by shipment characteristics and documentation.
Downstream CBAM proposals and contract documentation requirements
The proposed expansion of CBAM to selected downstream products could extend emissions-related obligations beyond basic steel. It would cover Turkish manufacturers of metal components, equipment and fabricated goods if included in the final scope. The compliance burden would therefore extend along parts of supply chains beyond primary steelmaking.
The European Commission has proposed extending CBAM to selected downstream products from 2028. The European Parliament supported a broader product list in September 2026. Negotiations are ongoing on final product scope, implementation timing and detailed rules for accounting for precursor emissions.
For Turkish industrial groups supplying both basic steel and finished products, connected records would become more important under proposed changes. Documentation would need to cover the producing mill, product classification, embedded emissions, downstream processing and the EU importer. These elements are linked to how emissions responsibilities are calculated for imported goods.
European customers are also expected to place greater emphasis on data quality and verification during purchasing contract negotiations. Contractual provisions may address allocation of carbon costs, accuracy of emissions declarations and remedies if submitted information proves incorrect. Such terms can shape how responsibilities are handled across producers, downstream manufacturers and importers.
The contractual focus is particularly relevant where final CBAM liability depends on installation-specific information or treatment of precursor materials. In these cases, documentation requirements can affect commercial relationships across multiple stages of production and importation. This increases the role of verified emissions information in supplier comparisons.
Türkiye retains logistical advantages and its leading position by finished-steel import volume into the EU market. Maintaining that position is expected to depend increasingly on verified carbon-adjusted delivered costs alongside transport efficiency, product specifications and access to available tariff quotas. These factors together influence how shipments compete under changing trade and carbon policy conditions.