China and Indonesia increased steel shipments to the European Union in the first half of 2026, while deliveries from several established suppliers declined. The changes took place as European steel demand remained weak. Import competition was shaped by carbon pricing, safeguard quotas and changes in manufacturing activity.
EU steel imports fell 5% year on year to about 34 million tonnes in the first six months of 2026, according to EUROFER. Finished steel imports were down 3% over the same period. The overall totals masked differences between individual supplying countries.
Supplier shifts in finished steel volumes
Indonesia’s deliveries rose 70% in the first half of 2026, while China’s shipments increased 40%. By contrast, imports from Türkiye fell 16%. South Korea’s deliveries to the EU decreased by 8%.
In finished steel, Türkiye remained the largest supplier with 15.7% of import volumes. China accounted for 12.3%, while South Korea represented 12%. Indonesia supplied 8.8%, and India provided 7.7%.
CBAM timing and quota openings affect procurement
The supplier ranking changes do not on their own show that CBAM redirected EU steel trade. EU importers brought forward purchases ahead of the mechanism’s financial phase, which began on 1 January 2026. Inventory movements and safeguard quota openings also influenced procurement, particularly for hot-rolled coil.
From July 2026, a separate EU steel regulation limited tariff-free import access to around 18.3 million tonnes annually. It also raised the out-of-quota tariff to 50%. These measures affect the cost of imported steel independently of carbon liabilities under CBAM.
Carbon pricing and trade restrictions mean import competitiveness cannot be assessed using shipment volumes alone. Quota availability and applicable tariffs influence landed costs alongside emissions-related obligations for covered products.
Hot-rolled and cold-rolled categories move differently
Differences across product categories also complicate comparisons between supplying countries. Imports of hot-rolled wide strip increased by 14% in the first half of 2026. Deliveries of cold-rolled sheet, sections and several long steel products declined.
A supplier can raise its share of finished-steel imports by expanding flat steel deliveries while losing ground in construction-related products. Broad customs statistics covering HS 72 should not be treated as directly equivalent to EUROFER’s finished-product import volumes when assessing market shares.
Emissions factors and certificate reference prices
CBAM adds differentiation between suppliers through default emissions factors set by the European Commission. The defaults vary by product and country, while producers can replace them with verified installation-specific emissions data.
The certificate reference price changed during 2026, with the third-quarter level reaching €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent. This compares with €75.28 in the second quarter. The reference price alone does not determine the final CBAM cost per tonne of imported steel.
Benchmark deductions and carbon prices already paid in the country of production also affect amounts due under CBAM. The certificate price therefore should not be interpreted as a uniform surcharge per tonne of steel.
Tariff access, verification and financing considerations
EU steel buyers need to evaluate whether shipments can enter within available tariff quotas. They also need to consider whether emissions documentation can pass verification requirements under CBAM rules. Buyers must account for whether purchase prices compensate for both trade-related and carbon-related risks.
For banks financing steel inventories, delivery delays and uncertainty over emissions data can be as significant as any apparent price advantage versus domestically produced material.
Second-half developments in 2026 will indicate whether gains recorded by China and Indonesia continue after year-end inventory effects unwind and tighter import quotas take effect.